Grey Market Premium: The Insider's Guide · Chapter 9 of 10
Studying GMP History with Data
What to track
Record the issue price, GMP at open, GMP at close, subscription and actual listing gain for every issue you watch. Add the market return on listing day for context.
What you may learn
You may find that GMP overestimates listing gains for large, expensive issues, or underestimates them for strongly subscribed small ones. These are patterns to test, not rules.
A small sample warning
A handful of issues is not evidence. Aim for at least twenty before drawing conclusions, and be wary of patterns that appear only in a hot or cold market.
Sources
Use LiveIPOData's Listing Gains and IPO Trends reports for past results, and the issue pages for recorded GMP and subscription.
Key takeaways
- Keep a log of GMP versus actual listing.
- Look for patterns by size and sector.
- Test patterns on enough issues before relying on them.
- Beware of conclusions from small samples.